The Effect of a Consumption-Based Accounting Method in National GHG Inventories: A Trilateral Trade System Application

*Correspondence: Simone Bastianoni , Ecodynamics Group, Department of Earth, Environmental and Physical Sciences, University of Siena, Pian dei Mantellini 44, Siena 53100, Italy e-mail: [email protected] The allocation of emissions embodied in international trade is crucial to evaluate the real impact that each country has on climate change and its responsibility in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this paper, we develop a new theoretical framework recently proposed by Caro et al. (2014) that computes the carbon emissions embodied in international trade according to a consumption-based accounting. The method uses the value of the goods traded internationally and the respective carbon intensity as a coefficient of national efficiency. To provide an example of application of the proposed methodology and assess its difference with respect to the current producer-based GHG accounting, we analyze a trilateral trade system composed by three countries (Sweden, Italy, and Poland) with large differences in terms of carbon intensity (low, medium, and high carbon intensity, respectively). From the analysis of the data during the period 2000–2008, it emerges that the proposed consumption-based accounting would imply an increase of Italian and Swedish emission responsibility by 1.4 and 11.8%, respectively, with respect to the conventional GHG accounting, and a decrease of the Polish responsibility by 2.81%. To assess the possible consequences deriving from the application of this new methodology, we also consider the effects of a shift of the Italian imports from Poland to Sweden of Machinery and Transport Equipments, a crucial sector in the trade relations among the three countries, which accounts for about 45% of total exports from Poland and Sweden to Italy. Finally, we discuss some policy implications deriving from the application of the consumption-based accounting, devoting particular attention to the results emerging from its hypothetical adoption in the EU-27. The analysis performed in the paper suggests that the adoption of a consumption-based accounting could be an important tool in the climate change challenge to reduce global emissions.